College Football Week 3: Four Free Picks with VALUE!

By: @DawgHasPicks

9/26/22

College Football Week 3: 5 Free Picks with VALUE

As we get into Week 3 of the college football season, we begin to really see the identity, characters and ceilings of a lot of these collegiate teams. In this article, we are going to look at five picks this Saturday that are due to cash out. With that being said, lets get to the picks:

  1. CFB | GEORGIA @ SOUTH CAROLINA | 09/17 | 12:00 PM EDT

I anticipate a sportsmanlike three-hour affair between Kirby Smart and his former assistant Shane Beamer in this matchup, since Georgia’s advantages on both sides of the ball offer a blatantly obvious lopsided game between two SEC East foes. South Carolina’s offensive line struggled to generate an advantage against Georgia State and Arkansas, so I believe they will suffer against the Bulldogs’ ferocious defense, and given that advantage, I could see Kirby Smart using this matchup to get good reps in for the Georgia rushing game. A fast-paced second half wherein Georgia has a sizable lead should hold us under the total.

THE PICK: U55

2. CFB | TROY @ APP. ST. | 09/17 | 3:30 PM EDT

Jon Sumrall, the Troy Trojans’ first-year coach, is a former Troy assistant under Neal Brown who returned to the program after working on the defensive staff at Kentucky. The Trojans are motivated to achieve the same thing that the Wildcats did by building a strong defense. They played well against Ole Miss in Week 1 before blowing away Alabama A&M last week. Appalachian State has dominated this series with four straight blowout victories, but Saturday could very well end up being a Mountaineer disappointment after their huge upset of Texas A&M last weekend. Expect a tenacious Troy squad to fight to the nail in this game.

THE PICK: Troy +13.5

3. CFB | KANSAS @ HOUSTON | 09/17 | 4:00 PM EDT

Early indications indicate that Lance Leipold may be the appropriate coach to revive the dead Jayhawks program. They are coming off a headline-grabbing 55-42 triumph over West Virginia, when they erased a 14-point deficit in the second half to run away with the W. Houston, on the other hand, rallied from a 14-point disadvantage only to fall short in overtime against Texas Tech. Although the Jayhawks should fight, a letdown is likely, and we’re getting very good value on a number that has dropped from -10. Saturday is a big motivational day for Houston as well.
THE PICK:  HOUSTON -8.5

4. CFB | OLE MISS @ GEORGIA TECH | 09/17 | 3:30 PM EDT

The Rebels will have quarterbacks Jaxon Dart and Luke Altmyer ready on The Flats, and the Rebels’ 6.64 yards per play average in the midst of an early-season quarterback duel is more than enough to consider this one a blowout waiting to happen. With 31 plays of 10 yards or more allowed, the Yellow Jackets are ranked 11th in the ACC in allowing plays that long. Based on how Lane Kiffin’s offense works, that’s highly concerning.

THE PICK: MISS -17

Week 1: Free MNF PICK!

9/11/22

By: @DawgGotPicks

9:35 PM EDT

Week 1: Free MNF PICK!

As we all know, Seattle coach Pete Carroll knows a little something about the opposing QB. 

After all, Russell Wilson played for him for a decade. 

The Seahawks, who were 12th in points allowed a year ago, will hope to find a plan to keep the Broncos, who were 23rd in scoring, at bay. 

When it comes to the offense contributing to the under hitting, QB Geno Smith takes over. That is clearly a significant drop-off from a QB of the caliber of Russell Wilson. 

Carroll, a lifelong supporter of the ground game, will adhere to his origins and keep the clock ticking.

The Pick: Under 44.



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Two GREAT NFL Week 1 Picks you should trail

Two GREAT NFL Week 1 Picks you should trail

By: @OOSSports

9/11/22

Two GREAT NFL Week 1 Picks you should trail

Ravens @ Jets | 09/11 | 1:00 PM EDT

Preview & Pick:

Caesars just dropped the spread below 7 Friday, so I’ll take advantage of the new number while it’s still around. Since Lamar Jackson and the team weren’t able to reach an agreement concerning an extension of his contract, I sense Jackson will play with a chip on his shoulder. The Jets have a number of important injury problems on the offensive line, and it has been ruled that Duane Brown will not play today. Of course, the Jets will start the aging and slow Joe Flacco. At the beginning of August, Mekhi Becton went down with a knee injury that ended his season.  The Jets’ record against the spread in their previous 12 September games is a horrific 1-11.  Since John Harbaugh gets his team ready for the season by genuinely caring about winning in the preseason, I am optimistic every year that the Ravens will always get off to a fast start annually. 

The Pick: Take the Ravens -6.5 (-110)

Saints @ Falcons | 09/11 | 1:00 PM EDT

Preview & Pick:

Since 2014, NFL Divisional opponents that have clashed in Week 1 have seen the underdog cover in 76% of those games. That trend has continued since that day. We have six of those games this weekend to kick off the season as a matter of fact, including this one. With that being said, if you want to cheer for an underdog, look elsewhere.  The Saints have beat the Dirty Birds four straight times, good for the franchise record. In fact, they haven’t lost in the “A” since 2017.

The Falcons had a record of 0-7 against the spread at home last season. As a matter of fact, the only “home game” they  covered last season was against the New York Je s last season, and that was in London. The one thing the Falcons did well last year was preventing sacks, but a large part of that was thanks to Matt Ryan evading pass-rushers himself, who is obviously no longer with the team. Unfortunately for him, the Saints defensive front specializes in just that, and he’ll have to take those sacks. It seems improbable Mariota will be able to match up with the production that Jameis Winston will put up against this defense. 

THE PICK: Take the Saints -5.5 (-110)

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CFB Week 2: Four Free VALUE Picks

By: OutOfSightSports

9/7/22

CFB Week 2: Four Free VALUE Picks

The second week of the College Football season is among us, and although this weekend of games does not stretch from Thursday to Monday like last week did, we definitely have some intriguing matchups on our hands this weekend. In this article, we are going to be looking at four different FREE picks that we believe have extreme upside, value, and will cover. With that being said, lets get to out first matchup this Friday….

LOUISVILLE @ UCF | 09/09 | 7:30 PM EDT

I’ll be candid, I have no explanation of why the spread isn’t two touchdowns in favor of UCF. John Rhys Plumlee, who led the SEC in rushing in 2019, is the ideal quarterback for Gus Malzahn’s run-first, up-tempo system.

Last week, the Cardinals were trounced by Syracuse by a result of 31-7 after amassing just 334 total yards. To stay in the game, Louisville will have to turn this Friday night matchup into a shootout, but there is very little indication that the Cards can do so.

THE PICK: UCF -5.5 (-110)

DUKE @ NORTHWESTERN |09/10 | 12:00 PM EDT

The O/U for this game is 58.5?! 

Northwestern’s redemption tour from their 2021’s failures has so far produced one satisfying W, a comeback victory over Nebraska in Ireland. The Wildcats now play a Duke team that routed them a season ago.

The Cats are a different team now though, managed by first-year HC Mike Elko, a former Texas A&M and Notre Dame defensive coordinator.

Following a shutout against Temple, Elko’s Wildcats are expected to perform well on defense primarily, as that is his expertise.

Although this Northwestern team displayed some hope against Nebraska, I think the value seems to be intrusting both defenses to execute effectively.

THE PICK: U58.5 (-110)

ALABAMA @ TEXAS | 09/10 | 12:00 PM EDT

The Longhorns’ 52-10 victory over a bad Louisiana-Monroe squad last weekend must be taken into account. The Warhawks lacked the talent to expose Texas’ vulnerabilities. No. 1 Alabama, on the contrary, absolutely does. Will Anderson and co. should prey on the young offensive line of the Longhorns, which features two true freshmen, slow running back Bijan Robinson, meaning Bama will force rookie QB Quinn Ewers to beat them through the air if they want a shot at winning.

Bryce Young, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, will face a defense that had only 20 sacks last season and gave up too many big plays on the back end. Texas is currently on its journey back, but it won’t be close on Saturday.

THE PICK: ALABAMA -20 (-110)

TENNESSEE @ PITT | 09/10 | 3:30 PM EDT

This Tennessee offense has the ability to be effective, quick, and dangerous. With that being said, I believe in the Panthers D-Line that is eight or nine players deep.

This will be pivotal in a game where the depth up front for Tennessee will be certainly challenged.

On the other side, the Panthers will do everything they can to wear down a suspect Tennessee defense, and at the very least, keep Tennessee’s offense on the sidelines. Take the under.

THE PICK: U66.5 (-110)

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7 Fantasy Players who could BREAK OUT going into this NFL Season

By: OutOfSightSports

9/5/22

7 Fantasy Players who could BREAK OUT going into this NFL Season

In this piece, we are going to look at seven NFL players who are in situations to break out this year and establish themselves as LEGIT fantasy threats if all goes right. Drafting a player in the later rounds who ends up being a pivotal piece of a championship team is about the best feeling there is as a fantasy football manager. This is not from best to worst, it’s just eight promising fantasy players who could break out. With that being said, let’s get to the list.

  1.  Dameon Pierce- We are going to start with the only rookie on this list, Dameon Pierce. Pierce was a 5th round pick of UF who was never really utilized right by former UF coach Dan Mullen, probably the reason he fell in the draft. With that being said, the young RB has established himself of the Texans run game with fantastic preseason outings and by outperforming vet RB Rex Burkhead in camp. Also, we know Marlon Mack was cut somewhat surprisingly. Anyways, the former Gator will probably lead this year’s draft class in touches. He is a HARD, tough, and gritty runner that fights for every inch who could be a huge threat in the red zone and a great fantasy pickup.
  2. Tua Tagovailoa- After a weird rookie campaign, the former Alabama product struggled a good bit in his 2nd season in the league. With that being said, the Dolphins have made it clear he is their guy. They have gone ALL-IN when it comes to surrounding him with talent, trading for speedster Tyreek Hill this offseason, drafting young superstar Jaylen Waddle going into Tagovailoa’s 2nd year, keeping Mike Gesicki around with a 1-year deal, and upgrading their RB unit with Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert this offseason. I just don’t see any chance that he doesn’t become a more productive quarterback in real life and in fantasy after being surrounded with this level of offensive talent. This also shows the trust the organization has in their QB.
  3. Irv Smith Jr- Two years ago, Smith Jr averaged nearly 13 fantasy PPG in games that fellow TE Kyle Rudolph missed during the 2020 season. With those numbers, he would have been TE5 last season. Unfortunately, he didn’t play last season as he missed the entire 2021 season with a knee injury. In his place, Tyler Conklin saw 87 targets in a role that was intended for Smith Jr. Consider adding the young TE to your squad this season if you can get him at the right value.
  4. Rashaad Penny- From Week 14 on last season, Penny led RBs in almost every stat. He was first in rushing yards, first in rushing yards over expectation, first in rushing TDs, first in 10+ yard runs, YAC and rushes over 15MPH. Not to mention, being in a run heavy offense that lost their franchise QB is most likely going to result in him getting more carries. He will also most likely be available in the lower rounds because of his durability concerns. I think that injury is the only thing that could stop Penny from breaking out this season.
  5. Kadarius Toney- The Giants started rotating Toney in their WR group in Week 4 last season, and it is safe to say it worked. In the following two games, the former Gator was targeted 22 times, recorded 16 grabs and 267 yards. (189 against the Cowboys and Trevon Diggs) An ankle injury and poor QB play derailed his productions, but he showed that he can play at the next level during that period. A breakout is coming.
  6. Rashod Bateman- As we know, Marquise Brown was traded to the Cardinals leading a ton of volume up for grabs in Baltimore. The Ravens selected Bateman in the first round of last season and might very well be the best receiver I believe Jackson has ever had. He is a monster at catching 50/50 balls and is a HUGE red-zone threat. Don’t be surprised if he gets well over 100 total targets.
  7. Gabriel Davis- Davis has shown he can be a touchdown machine, as we saw him score a whopping 4 touchdowns in the AFC Divisional round last season vs the Chiefs in a game for the ages. He already has 125 career regular season targets and has found the endzone 13 times and an addition five times on 13 targets in the postseason last year. A field-stretcher and a redzone threat, Davis has a chance to be a BIG-TIME fantasy threat in a pass-heavy offense led by an MVP caliber QB in Josh Allen.

Five SOLID Late-Round RBs to target with value: Fantasy Football 2022

By: OutOfSightSports

9/4/22

Five SOLID Late-Round RBs to target with Value: Fantasy Football 2022

In fantasy football, the majority of us can agree that the most vital position to fill while constructing a championship-winning roster is the running back position. With injuries and the diminishing shelf-lives of premier running backs shortening, it is always a smart idea to have competent back-ups who can put points on the board if your main bell-cow RB is out. In this article, we’ll look at five running backs that are often available in fantasy football drafts in Round 10 or after. This season, each back on this list is going to see significant playing time, and will more than likely get opportunities to emerge into RB1s.

Disclaimer: This list is in no order

Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams (ADP 11.4)

With Cam Akers on the IR, Henderson stepped in as the Rams’ starting RB in 2021. He had a stellar first eight games of the season, posting double-digit carries in all of them, and finding the end-zone 7-times during this stretch. The RB appeared to be one of the league’s best fantasy running backs early in 2020 and 2021, before being hampered by injuries both seasons.

The 24-year-old took only 23 offensive snaps in the final six regular-season games and didn’t play in the first three rounds of the playoffs. He returned in time for the Super Bowl though, where he was utilized as a third-down back, while fellow RB Cam Akers took a majority of his snaps during earlier downs.

The Rams appear to be comfortable with their two-back committee heading into the 2022 season. Sony Michel left in free agency for Miami, and the Rams only staked a fifth-round pick to replace him. Henderson could play on passing downs while also receiving some carries, just like the Super Bowl. When this is his job, he should only be in fantasy lineups as an emergency.

Nonetheless, Henderson should be drafted for the weeks when he does not have that role. Henderson could reclaim his starting spot for the Rams if he outperforms Akers or if Akers is injured. When healthy, Henderson is one of the most powerful handcuffs, making him a must-start if Akers spends any time as the starter.

Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions (ADP: 13.2)

As we know, Williams spent the first four seasons of his career in Green Bay with Aaron Jones. Despite missing two games, he finished as RB35 in 2019, whereas Jones finished as RB2. Jones missed two games in 2020 and Williams capitalized, finishing in the top 10 amongst fantasy RBs both weeks.

As we all know, he signed with the Lions last offseason joining D’Andre Swift as the two main backs in D-Town. During games in which both players played and were not sidelined, their carry splits were EXACTLY 50/50. Although  Swift had more explosive runs, which led the rookie to have slightly more rushing yards, Williams was more consistent on a run-by-run basis, that led to a higher rushing grade, according to PFF.

A healthy offensive line should certainly help both backs boost their productivity. Last season, the Lions never had all five of their offensive lineman healthy and available at the same time. Only a season later, the Lions find themselves in a completely different situation up front on offense, featuring a stout line that could be one of the best in the NFL,  which will help open up holes for both players.

Williams does have some stand-alone value and potential as well, notably against weak run defenses. The better the Lions operate as a unit, the more they will be able to run the ball, which will favor Williams above Swift. If Swift ever gets injured, Williams should be the team’s clear every-down back and will be a must-start in fantasy.

Jerrick McKinnon, Kansas City Chiefs (ADP: 18.6)

McKinnon signed with Kansas City in 2021 and managed to earn one of the squad’s three RB spots. During the first month of the season, he was limited to single-digit snaps each game before Clyde Edwards-Helaire sprained his MCL. He finally started playing, but he wasn’t receiving many opportunities to touch the ball.

Once Edwards-Helaire recovered, McKinnon missed several games due to a hamstring problem that landed him on IR. After McKinnon returned, CEH sustained another injury (shoulder) and was sidelined once again.  McKinnon was then promoted to the starting lineup when backup Darrel Williams experienced a toe injury. Over three playoff games, he ran for 150 yards on 34 attempts and hauled in 14 receptions for 165 yards respectively.

McKinnon stiff-arming Jordan Poyer

Kansas City was content with Williams leaving for Arizona in free agency after McKinnon’s postseason success. The Chiefs played their starters frequently during the preseason, suggesting that McKinnon will indeed be their third-down back this season.

Kansas City is uncertain who will back up Edwards-Helaire on early downs. Isiah Pacheco, a seventh-round rookie, made headlines during the preseason playing with the first team, while new signing Ronald Jones played snaps in the final preseason game. McKinnon has so far displayed what he can do for the Chiefs in early-down situations.

If he can play on some early downs as well as third downs, he might start having performances similar to the ones he had in last year’s playoffs. Selecting running backs in high-scoring offenses featuring fluid backfields is always a wise choice. McKinnon is extremely affordable ADP wise as a result of Pacheco’s rise, but adding him to your roster later on in your draft will most likely reap some benefits.

Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP: 11.1)

The 23-year-old running back spent the 2021 season in Philly as part of a four-man committee, largely as a receiving back. He had at least five targets in five games, including their final two games of the season, and had one of the highest threat rates in recent memory for a rookie running back.
He had at least five targets in five games, including their final two games of the season, and had one of the highest threat rates in recent memory for a rookie running back.
Despite being a pass-catching back, he logged double-digit carries three times a season ago, two times during blowout wins when the Eagles were missing their other backs, and the other in Week 18, when the team rested its starters. This season, he could take on a prominent role in the run game.

Outside of an undrafted rookie, the Eagles have not re-signed Jordan Howard or acquired any new players to put in their backfield. Gainwell is the Eagles’ sole back under contract through 2022, so they’ll need to see what they’ve got in him prior to next season. Philadelphia also plans to pass more this season, meaning there will be more plays in which Gainwell is the likely the running back in the formation. Miles Sanders is the team’s top rusher, but he’s been one of the league’s least efficient, with the fourth-lowest PFF run grade among the 30 backs with 400 or more carries over the last three seasons — two of the three running backs with a lower grade are already out the league.

Philadelphia must undergo a change.

Gainwell is unlikely to become a full-time three-down back, but several running backs have had top-10 fantasy seasons with high target shares and averages of just less than 10 touches per game, which is certainly within Gainwell’s range of outcomes in 2022.

Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears (ADP: 13.0)

The 2021 sixth-round draft pick was the Bears’ third back on the depth chart starting last season, but he only played nine offensive snaps mostly in garbage time over the first month, before David Montgomery landed on IR for five weeks. Herbert and Damien Williams split time in Week 5, and Williams missed Week 6 due to COVID-19, allowing Herbert a chance to impress. Herbert generated 38.2 PPR points in the two weeks following for any fantasy manager bold enough to start him. By mid-season, Montgomery had returned as the stater, but Herbert remained ahead of Williams on the depth chart and took more reps.

On a small sample size, the 5-foot-9 back looked excellent.  There is potential danger that he will regress with more playing time, but the goal of the mid-to-late rounds in fantasy drafts is to take a gamble on a player who has played well in a limited amount of time.

Herbert’s fantasy value has improved this summer, as the Bears let Williams go to the Atlanta Falcons in free agency and only allocated a sixth-round pick in addition to a waiver wire pickup that will fight for the third spot on the depth chart. The Bears hired defensive-minded head coach Matt Eberflus this offseason as well, while former Green Bay Packers quarterback coach Luke Getsy was appointed as the Bears new passing game coordinator. The Packers utilized a split backfield in Getsy’s prior time with the team, and it might not be a bad idea to implement it in Chicago. Montgomery’s 1,401 offensive snaps over the last two seasons are the second-most for a running back.

If Chicago takes this approach, Herbert may be given more rushing opportunities while Montgomery manages the passing downs, offering Herbert some fantasy value every week. If Montgomery had been injured, Herbert would be a fantasy starter yet again, with very little competition from backups.

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College Football FREE Pick | NORTH CAROLINA @ APP. ST. | 09/03 | 12:00 PM EDT

By: OutOfSightSports

9/2/22

College Football FREE Pick | NORTH CAROLINA @ APP. ST. | 09/03 | 12:00 PM EDT

NORTH CAROLINA @ APP. ST. | 09/03 | 12:00 PM EDT

New #CFBFreePick Out! 🚨 🚀 
The first of many as we get into the full swing of College Football!!!
UNC QB Drake Maye

Pick: Over 55.5

Reason: Here are two key takeaways from North Carolina’s Week One triumph over Florida A&M, both of which play into taking the over in Saturday’s game in Boone. First, redshirt freshman QB Drake Maye looks like the blue chip recruit he was anticipated to be, and his five touchdown performance indicates the Tar Heels’ offense will be fine in the post-Sam Howell era. Second, the arrival of Gene Chizik as their new DC has not resulted into quick defense improvement which some were expecting. FAMU was capable of effectively moving the ball, and I am convinced that App State will as well. Whoever performs better in the red zone will capture what I anticipate to be a close game, but regardless of the final score, we should see enough points for the over to be the safe pick.

™️

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